Theory of Change

What is Theory of Change?

A Theory of Change (ToC) is a method for systematically exploring the relationship between activities, outcomes and context of a predefined long-term goal, allowing for the selection of a logical set of interventions (the outcome pathway) to achieve the long-term goal.

The long-term goal is broken down into prior changes required to reach that goal, and the causal and chronological links between them are identified – also literally by using a graphical representation with arrows between outcomes of activities. The chain of selected interventions intended to lead to the desired long-term change is called an ‘outcome pathway’. The method derives its name from the assumptions and theories underlying the architecture of dependencies and the chosen outcome pathway, the logic of change.

A ToC also represents a certain mindset, a way of thinking and acting. This is evident, among other things, in the essential role of stakeholders to analyse the long-term goal, choose interventions and formulate desired outcomes in advance. That mindset also involves articulating and critically evaluating (including in the interim) one’s own choices and assumptions, especially in terms of interventions, their coherence and the path to the long-term goal. It is not just about knowing what works but also how it works; this makes the entire process more transparent, easier to follow and communicate and also more transferable to other situations.

A ToC is therefore not only a product (change model) but also a process (elaborating and critically reflecting on the ‘theory’ of the model). The success of a ToC can be measured by the advances in achieving successful outcomes, which indicate that the ToC is correct and effective. Demonstrating this requires indicators – metrics that are concrete, measurable and observable. Indicators are chosen by asking questions such as “what do I need/want to know to determine whether the outcome has been achieved” together with stakeholders.

How do you use a Theory of Change?
A ToC can be used in planning a programme by analysing the set long-term goal, but also in evaluating a programme by reflecting on the choices made and what the interventions have contributed to the long-term goal, and why, in order to learn from what has worked. As such, a ToC can also be an integral framework for programme planning, monitoring and evaluation.

A ToC can be used for large complex issues in society, such as reducing domestic violence, but also for helping organisations, for example an aid agency in developing countries, become more effective. It can also be used to identify which interventions are logical and useful in specific, more small-scale contexts, such as combating vacancy in a particular commercial area.

Because a ToC approach has so many possible applications, it is difficult to establish one generic roadmap for all situations. Below, we outline three types of application increasing in complexity and time investment. Reflecting critically on a variety of assumptions underlying a change process is indeed seen as the crux of a ToC. This is relatively easy to apply in brainstorming sessions during a new or existing change project. For example, participants may be asked to make statements such as “activity x leads to outcome y because…”, which contains an activity, an outcome and an assumption, the part after ‘because’. Mutual enquiry about the what and the why of the relationships made is already, at its core, a ToC activity. Alternatively, you could take an example of a change and discuss it: what happened? Who were involved, what made the change possible, what did we contribute? Or you could focus on the question: what change do we want to deliver and what three to five elements need to be in place for that change to take place, and what is the relationship between these elements?

A more structured approach could consist of three steps, as set out below.

1. Map the context of the proposed change: how, by whom and when do changes occur in the relevant field? Do this with post-its and draw arrows between dependencies and sequence.
2. Choose a change pathway:
   • What problem or sub-problem are you addressing, what are the underlying causes, and what factors influence the outcome?
   • With whom and how will you go about this?
   • When will it be successful (long-term goal), and what intermediate steps will you take?
3. Impact assessment framework: how will you monitor activities? How do we know that change has occurred?

A comprehensive ToC has many facets, is labour-intensive and requires a lot of time to properly map out and maintain. Aspects to consider include:

• Context: situational analysis; how did the problem arise? What is the current status? What factors (political, economic, social, institutional) play a key role in the context? What opportunities are there for change?
• Desired change: what is the long-term change envisioned? What are the intermediate steps to get there? And what path can be chosen to get to that goal (outcome pathway)?
• Who will benefit from the change and what are the benefits?
• Actors who play a role in the context: analyse the actors, organisations and networks that are important in the context and needed to bring about change; what are the power relations and what institutional configurations can help or hinder the process?
• Assumptions: make explicit the assumptions that the actors have about how change takes place in the context, cause-and-effect relationships, arguments, interests and beliefs that play a role in the analysis of the problem and substantiate this with information and evidence.
• Analysis of the possibilities of the change process to actually bring about change – resources, influence, communication power, support, and so on – both directly through the interventions chosen and indirectly through collaboration and interaction.
• Strategic choices and intervention options: activities chosen to bring about or influence change.
• Timeline: realistic perspective on the time it will take for changes or growth to occur.
• Indicators: choosing and implementing indicators to demonstrate the outcomes of the interventions as well as to what extent (and how) the long-term goal has been achieved or brought closer.

This is complex and requires time, organisation, resources and determination. See also the ToC knowledge clip and the approach adopted by Hivos.

What is the origin of the Theory of Change?
ToC originated in the 1990s from the need to understand the rationale behind social and political programmes that sought to bring about change. These often proved difficult to evaluate because the assumptions underlying the intended (social) change were not made explicit. And in recent decades, the desire to demonstrate impact of programmes has only grown stronger. There is, moreover, increasing awareness of the complexity of issues, which also means there is a need to be able to make informed choices about the right interventions. The method is widely used to implement social change by governments, philanthropic initiatives, NGOs and non-profit organisations, such as the World Bank, UNICEF, Greenpeace and the Kellogg Foundation.